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OK from two perspectives, first we’ll do a 30 day look-back and then a 6 month look-back for a broad perspective. As always my data comes from the Missoula Organization of Realtors MLS. Additionally I sort our data by the brackets that MOR uses as well.
Absorption rates represent how much inventory is currently listed on the market. What I put together is all active listings and then divide that number by the amount of sold properties. On the 30 day look-back I pull all the sold numbers from that 30 day time span. On the 6 month I do the same but when I take active, divide by sold, I then multiply that number by 6 which returns the 6 month absorption rate.
Generally a good market is where you see months (supply) under 6 to 8 months of supply. 8 to 12 is a bit of oversupply, and 12+ months of inventory shows signs of pretty heavy over-supply. Ususally this time of year most all of our absorption rates are in double digits in the 10 to 18 month range as our sales trends usually slow down over the holiday seasons.
Last 30 days: 11/21 – 12/21
$0 – $150: 75 active / 7 sold = 10.7 months
$150k – $200k: 157 active / 19 sold = 8.3 months
$200k – $275k: 143 active / 16 sold = 8.9 months
$275k – $350k: 95 active / 16 sold = 5.94 months
$350k – $425k: 52 active / 3 sold = 17.3 months
$425k+: 96 active / 2 sold = 48 months
Overall market: 618 active / 63 sold = 9.81 months
This took me generally by surprise, I figured we’d be sitting on the 12 – 18 month overall range with most all of our brackets being in the double-digit area for rates. The total volume of 63 homes sold in Missoula is a good return, basically 2 homes per day sold over the last 30 days (and only 5 of which were foreclosure sales). This is a positive sign heading into the new year that Missoula’s winter market is performing stronger than in year’s past. For a quick historical reference our prior winter/4th qtr rates went 16 months in 2008, 25 months in 2009, and 16 months in 2010.
And now Last 6 months 6/21 – 12/21
$0 – $150: 75 active / 83 sold (*6) = 5.42 months
$150k – $200k: 157 active / 124 sold (*6) = 7.6 months
$200k – $275k: 143 active / 134 sold (*6) = 6.4 months
$275k – $350k: 95 active / 67 sold (*6) = 8.5 months
$350k – $425k: 52 active / 27 sold (*6) = 11.55 months
$425k+: 96 active / 16 sold (*6) = 36 months
Overall market: 618 active / 451 sold (*6) = 8.22 months
The “bigger picture” of the last 6 months doesn’t really show a stark difference compared to the last 30 days, similar trends. It’s clear that price is key in our market right now and that the “top end” of Missoula’s real estate market still is over-crowded and slow due to very little activity at all.
